Loading...

I bought & I'm planning on buying lots more!

April 21, 2024
4
45
0

Potentially the AWS of Fintech?

I honestly never thought it would reach these levels, but here we are. I bought more, heres why:
 

Company name: SoFi

They offer a diverse set of services:

Investing

Banking

Personal Loans

Credit Score & Budgeting

Student Loan refinancing

Mortgages

Credit Card

Insurance

Auto loan refinancing

Private Student loans

In other words, everything finance.

A one-stop shop for all ones finance needs.

They have 3.5 million+ members currently & this is continuously growing.

 

Q1 results

  • Added 408 000 new members (70% YoY growth)
  • 689 000 new product adds (84% YoY growth)
  • Galileo accounts reached 110 million accounts, up 10 million accounts in the quarter. (58% YoY growth)
  • Cash & Cash equivalents =n $1.33 Billion
  • Revenue grew 49% YoY to $322 million. Beating estimates by $37 Million.
  • Ebitda grew 110% to $9 million. (Still small though) beating estimates by $4 million.


The Biden administration again extended the pause on student debt repayment this time through Aug. 31. That means instead of federal student loan payments resuming after May 1, borrowers have four more months of reprieve, with payments set to start Sept.

This negatively impacted SoFi in the short term.

Guidance

  • Revenue Q2 = $330 to 340 million (Approx 40% YoY growth)
  • Ebitda $5-15 Million (40% YoY growth)
  • Revenue (Full Year) = $1.5 Billion
  • EBITDA (Full Year) = $100 to 105 million

Quick note:

Q1s EBITDA was $9 million, they forecast up to $15 million Ebitda in Q2. This implies $24 Million Ebitda in the first two quarters, which means they expect to achieve around $76 million Ebitda between Q3 & Q4. That is BIG quarter over quarter growth.

Bullish Factors:

  • Management recently bought shares. (Anthony Noto, CEO especially)
  • Growth taking place
  • Attractive valuation

The stock only trades at 2x '23 sales targets.

  • EBITDA Growth expected
  • Recent bank charter approval will approve margins
  • Acquisition of Technisys & Galileo can really prove valuable in years to come in various aspects.
  • Management showed us that they can execute well.
  • Distribution- They already have millions of customers, which means they have distribution to sell more products to the existing userbase. 

Bearish Factors

  • Macro worries

There is still uncertainty about a recession and the impact it might have on SoFi if it happens.

Why did the share price decline so much?

General market pullback

Markets fear, especially for high growth stocks

Fintech stocks getting hammered

Does this mean the long-term fundamentals have changed?

IMO, NO

Are there risks in the short term?

Yes, even though they are still unclear.

 

Conclusion

I love the industry.

I love the company.

Its one of my biggest positions in my US portfolio.

If it dips more, I will buy more. This is NOT a short term investment for me.

I look forward to 10 years from now when I will look back at the current share price. (Unless something goes horribly wrong)

Personally, I place value on more than just the financials.

I place value on their userbase & community, their banking charter, their management, their brand, their software infrastructure etc. 

All key metrics make me super bullish for the long term. But, its just my opinion. I am biased because I am invested, so DO NOT take this as financial advice. Make sure you do your own research and due diligence before investing in any company.


Related Tags:
3 min read
Share this article:

Related Articles

All articles
Top